Roblog

Adam Tooze’s Chartbook newsletter has a great roundup of news on the unfolding tensions in Ukraine.

In particular, it has a useful explanation for the strange headlines we’ve seen in the last week or so, in which US, UK, and EU sources have been saying that an invasion is imminent, but Ukrainian sources have been playing that down. Tooze quotes Alexander Clarkson:

“I suspect the crisis timelines US and EU are focused on are out of whack with Russian elite timelines, that could lead to a build up of Russian troops staying on or close to Ukraine’s borders for months and years, and Ukrainian societal timelines focused on survival over decades.”

In other words: nobody seems to agree on the length of game that’s being played – but Ukraine itself must always play the longest of long games.